What a Harris presidency might mean for banking

Editor's note: This column was included in the July 25 version of The Pulse, a weekly BankBeat newsletter sent to subscribers..What a whirlwind few weeks of political events we've had: Assassination attempts, VP picks and the first presidential incumbent to not seek re-election since Lyndon Johnson. As we collectively sift through the impacts of Joe Biden's choice to drop out of the race, eyes turn to Kamala Harris, his pick as successor..Harris has the delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination, and now we wait for the formalities next month. What would her presidency mean for the banking industry? Would it be significantly different from Biden?.As California's Attorney General, Harris certainly wasn't friendly toward big banks. She worked to increase the consumer payout from a settlement with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and others, bumping it up to a ceiling of $18 billion from the previous $4 billion target. .As vice president, Harris has thrown her weight behind the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and its proposal to keep medical debt off consumers' credit reports. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the driving force behind the CFPB's creation, endorsed her as the Democratic nominee. Under a Harris administration, it would presumably be full steam ahead for CFPB Director Rohit Chopra and his team..Will Harris continue the Biden administration's antagonism toward industry consolidation? I've often heard over the last three and a half years how regulatory resistance has put the breaks on M&A deal approval — sometimes such that the deal gets called off. Michael Hsu, acting Comptroller of the Currency, expressed concerns last week about the number of very large banks in the United States and the impact of other failures like Silicon Valley Bank..But so far there isn't much from Harris' time as vice president that can be read strongly one way or another. Four years ago, even her involvement with a minor agency involved in digital payments was seen as a possible signal about the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency during the lead-up to the 2020 election. Much remains to be seen about how her policy positions and potential administration will shake out. .Politico offers a good summary of the difficulty in nailing down precisely what her positions are likely to be based on past performance. I also enjoyed this New York Times profile from last year about the woman who might be America's first female president.