Survey: Rural economy reached five-month low in March

Economic conditions reached a five-month low in March, according to Creighton University’s monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region..The region’s overall reading fell seven points to 40.9, its 13th month of being under 50 since the start of 2025. Any reading over that mark signals positive sentiments.Rural bankers remained pessimistic about economic growth over the next six months, with March’s confidence index falling to 29.5 from 45.8 in February. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton’s Economic Forecasting Group. Farm loan delinquency rates remained relatively low despite a drop in farm income, with more than half seeing no change or a drop. According to the report, 47.6 percent reported loan delinquency rates “increased modestly.” The index measuring farming and ranchland prices increased to 50.2 from 45.5 in February as farm and ranchland prices remained higher than farm income.Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock increased 3 percent in the first month of this year, according to the International Trade Association, but were down 20.5 percent from the first month of 2024. This month’s farm equipment sales index increased to 28.6 from 16.7 in February, remaining under 50 for the 31st straight month. “The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, primarily impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins, increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” Goss said.March’s loan volume index jumped 24.3 points to 78.6, while the checking deposit index increased to 64.3 from 60.9 in February. The region’s index for certificates of deposits increased 2.4 points to 52.4.The new hiring index for this month increased less than a point to 49.9 as job gains for non-farm rural employers remained weak. The index tracking home and retail sales increased 11.3 points to 54.5, while regional retail sales increased to 43.2 from 42.1 in February.