Supply manager sentiments rise as confidence falls

Supply manager sentiments improved last month even as confidence fell amid tariff-related concerns, according to Creighton University’s March business conditions index..The index increased to its highest mark since July 2022, to 56.7 from 52.0 in February. Despite the rise in the index, the business confidence reading fell to a six-month low, to 37.5 from 45.7. Only one-in-five supply managers expect business conditions will improve over the next six months, a lack of confidence attributed to global economic tension and rising tariffs. President Donald Trump’s stated plan to implement a series of tariffs on other countries on April 2 — what he has deemed “Liberation Day” — adds to economic pressure and volatility, said Ernie Goss, chair in regional economics at Creighton’s Heider College of Business. “The Creighton survey is recording significant volatility, much like other regional economic measures,” Goss said. “Proposed and implemented tariffs are not only producing economic volatility but are damaging supply managers’ economic outlook.” The wholesale price inflation reading indicated growing price pressures, increasing for the sixth straight month, to 63.7 from 63.2. Goss expects the Federal Reserve will not change interest rates at its upcoming meeting in May. Regional manufacturing exports were flat to start the year at $7.1 billion, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration. March’s import index dropped by more than 50 percent to 32.6 from February’s record 68.2 as supply managers cut back on purchasing from abroad.March’s employment index increased to its highest mark since the summer of 2022, to 67.6 from 51.2 in February. Half of supply managers reported a balanced job market. Thirty percent reported having more job applicants than openings, while 20 percent reported more openings than applicants. The index reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies fell nearly 20 points, to 32.5 from 51.4 in February. “After adding to inventories in the first two months of 2025, in order to front-run tariffs, firms pulled back on their inventory buildup,” Goss said. Recent declines in the value of the dollar have made U.S. goods more competitively priced abroad, according to Creighton University, with the new export orders index rising eight points last month to 52.6. Other report findings included: New orders increased to 55.9 from 50.4 in February, while the production or sales index rose to 55.4 from 51.2 in February. The speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies increased to 56.0 from 55.7 in February. Conducted since 1994, the survey includes Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.