The rural economy remains weak as bankers see increasing stress in agriculture, according to Creighton University’s November survey of bank CEOs. .Creighton’s rural mainstreet index rose to 44.0 in November from 34.6 in October, its lowest reading in nearly 5 1/2 years, but was still well under the growth-neutral threshold of 50. Any reading above 50 signals economic growth. The index has been in contractionary mode for most of this year. Bankers’ confidence in the six-month outlook deteriorated further, dipping to 32.0 from 32.7. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Ernie Goss, chair in regional economics at Creighton University.Roughly one-third of surveyed bankers said their local economy is already in recession, while nearly 31 percent expect one to begin in 2026. Another 36 percent reported solid growth with no recession on the horizon. Bank CEOs expect an average of 18.3 percent of farmers and ranchers in their area to post negative cash flow this year.According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, average net cash farm income for farm businesses this year is expected to increase 12 percent from 2024 to $127,000. However, preliminary farm income estimates project a significant decline for next year amid lower crop prices and continued trade uncertainty. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and high input costs for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity,” Goss said. Farmland prices remained in contraction for the 18th time in 19 months, according to Creighton, with the related index increasing to 43.2 from 37.0 in October. Nearly 60 percent of bankers expect values to decline in 2026, with an average projected drop of 3.1 percent.The index tracking farm equipment sales fell to 15.1 from 18.8, its 27th straight month of contraction amid high input costs, tighter credit, lackluster commodity prices and tariff-fueled market volatility, Goss said. Other report findings included:The hiring index increased to 49.5 from 44.0 in October amid continued softness in the nonfarm employer market. The loan volume index eased to 64.6 from 72.0, while the checking deposits index improved to 58.3 from 52.0. The index for certificates of deposit fell below 50 for the first time in nearly three years, to 47.9 amid changing interest rate dynamics.Home and retail sales continued to be below growth neutral, though both saw slight improvements on a monthly basis.
