The Midwestern manufacturing economy improved last month amid a rise in new orders, according to Creighton University..February’s Mid-America Business Conditions Index increased to 54.7 from 49.6 in January. New orders increased to 59.3 from 48.8 in January, while the production index rose to 56.7 from 52.1. The speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies increased to 55.5 from 54.4. The index tracking economic optimism fell to 57.2 from 59.3 in January, remaining in positive territory amid moderating inflation and the rise in new orders. GDP, which grew 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, is stronger than the labor market, said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton’s Economic Forecasting Group. “We are seeing some real weakness in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ,” he added. Driven by a fall in AI-related tech stocks, Nasdaq fell 2.5 percent early this year, while S&P 500 has fallen into negative territory for 2026. Trade numbers improved, with the index tracking imports increasing to 42.5 from 38.2 in January, while the exports index increased nearly 2 points to 47.2. The index tracking raw materials and supplies increased to 52.8 from 45.5 in January. Six-in-10 supply managers reported a negative impact from the Trump administration’s tariff policy, while the vast majority said artificial intelligence had “little or no” impact on their business. The regional trade deficit for manufactured goods increased to $6.2 billion in 2025 from $5.1 billion the previous year. Regional manufacturing exports fell 5.4 percent last year on an annualized basis, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration. Imports of regional manufactured goods fell 4 percent to $97.1 billion from $101.2 billion in 2024. “As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 12 months,” Goss said.The index measuring inflation increased two points to 60.2, with the wholesale price index increasing 3.3 percent on an annualized basis. Goss said the rise in the inflation reading further reduces the chances of the Federal Open Market Committee cutting interest rates at its March 17-18 meeting. “While the Creighton regional price gauge and the national ISM wholesale price index have somewhat moderated, both indicate manufacturing price levels remain elevated,” Goss said.The hiring index fell 2 points to 47.2 from 49.2 in January, as the manufacturing sector lost jobs for the 11th straight month, Goss said. The survey tracks nine states: Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
