Regional economy grows even as job losses continue

The regional economy expanded in August even as job losses and inflation continue, according to Creighton University’s Mid-America business conditions index. .The index increased to 50.5 from 49.4 in July. Any reading above 50 shows growth. The business confidence index increased to 47.4 from 42.6, though most supply managers remained cautious. Few expected improving conditions over the next six months.The cautious outlook aligns with the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that the economy will grow at a less than 2 percent rate through next year as inflation eases but remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target.The employment index ticked up to 45.6 in August but remained below growth neutral for the fifth consecutive month as regional manufacturing struggles continue. While 15 percent of firms reported increased hiring, 10 percent indicated layoffs. Some managers cited ultra-low unemployment — less than 2 percent in some areas — as a barrier to filling open positions. U.S. unemployment increased to a four-year high of 4.3 percent last month, up from 4.2 percent in July. The wholesale price index fell to 64.9 from 69.7 in July but still pointed to significant inflation. The annual inflation rate was 2.7 percent in the 12 months ending in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Four in five firms said tariffs were pushing import prices higher. Creighton Chair in Regional Economics Ernie Goss predicted that slowing growth could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this month.The new orders index improved to 49.8 in August, while production climbed to 53.4, showing signs of resilience. Delivery speeds accelerated, suggesting easing supply chain pressures.The export orders index remained in contraction territory at 39.5, while imports dropped to 35.9 as tariffs and rising costs weighed on trade. Regional exports of manufactured goods fell 5.7 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period of 2024, to $46.5 billion from $49.3 billion, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.