Manufacturing economy improves despite war, job losses

The manufacturing economy improved across the Midwest last month despite increased energy prices and supply chain disruptions sparked by the war between Israel/the United States and Iran, according to Creighton University..Creighton’s business conditions index increased less than one point in March, to 55.6 from 54.7 in February. Any reading above 50 indicates positive sentiments. Economic optimism for the next six months fell four points to 53.2. “I expect rising energy prices, along with supply chain disruptions, to push the confidence index lower in the coming months,” Goss said. March’s employment index increased 1 1/2 points to 50.7. Still, U.S. manufacturing shed 20,000 jobs from December-February. U.S. unemployment remained at 4.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The price gauge increased to 69.4 from 60.2 in February, which Goss expects will eliminate the chance of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates at its next meeting later this month. On average, supply managers expect the price of supplies to increase 5 percent over the next year. “Creighton’s latest survey indicates the regional manufacturing sector continues to improve, albeit slowly but steadily, with manufacturing jobs added for the first time since March 2025,” said Chair in Regional Economics Ernie Goss. The regional inventory index dropped to 52.4 from 52.8 in February. Goss said he expects confidence will drop in the coming months amid rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions during the Iran War. The new export orders index increased to 48.6 from 47.2 in February amid record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices. March’s import index increased to 46.4 from 42.5 in February. Recent retaliation from increased U.S. tariffs along with trade restrictions caused the index for new export orders to fall under 50 for the seventh straight month. Canada and China have targeted U.S. electronics, steel and agricultural products for retaliation, while the European Union has proposed retaliating for U.S. tariffs. “As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 12 months,” according to the report. The survey covers nine states: Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota. Other report findings included:New orders increased less than a point to 60.2, while the production index increased to 57.8 from 56.7 in February. The index tracking the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies increased to 56.9 from 55.5, which shows slowing delivery speed and/or increasing supply chain disruptions or delays.