Low grain prices pressure farmers, weaken rural economy

The rural economy continued to struggle this month amid weak agricultural commodity prices for grain producers, according to Creighton University’s rural mainstreet index of bank CEOs..The index, which tracks rural economies across a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and energy, fell to 38.5 from 48.1 in August, its seventh time of falling under the growth-neutral score of 50 this year. Any reading under 50 indicates economic contraction. Creighton’s confidence index remained limited, increasing only to 32.7 from 27.8 in August. The vast majority of bankers said the economy was in a slowdown. Bank CEO sentiments mirrored a Congressional Budget Office forecast of worsening unemployment, inflation and GDP growth for the remainder of 2025. Bankers reported continued fallout trade disputes, with 75 percent citing negative impacts from tariffs on farm operations. “Almost three of four bank CEOs and chief loan officers indicated that falling agricultural commodity prices represented the greatest threat to banking operations over the next 12 months,” said Ernie Goss, regional economist at Creighton’s Heider College of Business. According to the USDA, wheat prices fell this month to $4.94 from $5.28 in August, while corn farm prices dropped to $4.29 from $4.47. Farmland values fell in September for the 16th time in 17 months, to 45.8 from 46.2, as bankers cited high interest rates, elevated input prices and below-breakeven grain prices as significant pressures. The farm equipment sales index remained lackluster, increasing only to 15.2 from 14.6 in August, extending its streak of being below 50 to 25 months. “High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on the purchases of farm equipment,” Goss said. The loan volume index fell to 70 from 82.7 in August, and the checking deposit index dropped to 54.0 from 63.5 in August. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments increased to 60.0 from 59.6 in August.The hiring index fell to 48 from 56.0 in August, signaling softer job gains, according to the report. The retail sales index fell to 34.8 from 46.2 in August. The home sales index remained under growth-neutral at 48.0. The survey tracks sentiments in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.