Creighton survey: Regional manufacturing weakened in November

The regional manufacturing economy remained sluggish last month, according to Creighton University. The Mid-America Business Conditions Index fell one point to 49.5 in November, just below the mark of 50, which indicates the threshold between expansion and contraction. .The index has been in contraction territory three of the past five months. “Creighton’s latest survey indicates the regional manufacturing economy continues to move sideways with the wholesale inflation gauge moving lower,” said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group. “Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports.”Business confidence improved slightly but remained weak, with the related index rising to 47.4 from 42.2 in October, as tariffs, inflation and slowing business activity weighed on expectations. Only one in five supply managers expect conditions to improve over the next six months. Inventory levels were essentially flat, following an earlier buildup tied to potential tariff increases.However, the inflation index dropped to 59.8 — its lowest reading of the year — from 62.9 in October. Goss predicted the slowing economy could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting this month, even as inflation remains above target.The employment index edged up to 47.6, but remained below growth-neutral for the eighth consecutive month. Twenty-five percent of supply managers regularly used artificial intelligence in their work, while 40% said wage growth has not kept pace with the cost of living. Unemployment insurance claims across the region were 3.7% higher in September and October compared with the same period last year.Trade activity remained relatively weak with imports and exports still in contraction, despite slight month-over-month increases. Additional components showed weakness in new orders and production, while shorter delivery times suggested easing supply-chain pressures.The Creighton survey covers supply managers in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.