Creighton survey: CEO sentiment weakens

Rural bank CEO sentiments were relatively lackluster this month even as most support the tariffs President Donald Trump has announced against China, according to Creighton University’s rural mainstreet index. .The index fell to 40.0 from 41.1 in March, the 19th time in the last 20 months it’s been under the growth-neutral score of 50. The index tracks CEO sentiments in a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. CEOs continued to report weak ag conditions. The index for farmland prices fell below growth-neutral for the 11th time in the past 12 months, increasing only to 41.7 from 38.9 in March. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Ernie Goss, chair in regional economics at Creighton University. The index tracking farm equipment sales dropped below 50 for the 20th straight month, to 17.4 from 20.8 in March.Despite the weak sentiment, 75 percent of CEOs support President Donald Trump’s substantial tariff hikes on China, while only one in four want a return to Jan. 1 tariff levels. Nearly 80 percent support Trump’s recent 90-day pause on other tariffs. On April 9, Trump paused most tariffs he said were retaliatory against U.S. trading partners, while still raising tariffs on goods imported from China to 145 percent. Rural bankers continued to lack optimism about economic growth over the next six months, with the April confidence index increasing to 36.0 from 30.4 the previous month. Goss attributed the lack of confidence to lackluster grain prices and negative cash flows along with the fall in farm equipment sales over the past several months. April’s loan volume index fell to 70.8 from 77.8 the previous month, while the checking deposit index increased to 58.7 from 50.0. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments rose to 58.3 this month from 55.6 in March. Other report findings included:The new hiring index fell to 43.8 this month from 53.7 in March as recent job gains weakened for non-farm employers. The index for home and retail sales remained weak, inching up to 45.8 from 42.6 in March. The regional retail sales index was even lower, down to 39.6 from 40.4.