Bank CEOs: Rural economy improved this month despite recession concerns

Bank CEO views of the rural economy improved this month but remained relatively poor amid low farm commodity prices and high input prices, according to Creighton University’s monthly survey of bank CEOs..The region’s rural mainstreet index increased seven points to 47.9, the 14th time since the start of 2025 the index has been under 50. Any reading higher than 50 shows positive sentiments. April’s confidence index increased to 39.1 from 29.5 in March. More than half of bankers said their local economy was in a recession. “Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” said Creighton Chair in Regional Economics Ernie Goss. Agriculture equipment sales fell below the growth neutral score of 50 for the 32nd straight month. The majority of bank CEOs said the $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program “has had only a slightly positive to no impact on the rural economy,” according to the report. Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock increased 5 percent to $1.88 billion for the first two months of this year from the same time last year, according to the International Trade Association. This month’s farm equipment sales index fell 2.5 points to 26.1, its 32nd straight month of being under 50. Goss said the war in Iran has increased volatility in the agricultural sector, tightening farmer operating margins by increasing input expenses and changing planting decisions. The region’s farm and ranchland price index fell to 48.0 from 52.0 in March. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have pushed farmland values lower,” Goss said. The survey includes CEOs in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming. Other April report findings included:Nearly 8 in 10 bankers support leaving short-term interest rates as is at the Federal Reserve’s meetings April 28-29. The loan volume index fell to 65.2 from 78.6 in March. The index tracking checking deposits fell to 60.9 from 64.3 in March, while the region’s index for certificates of deposits increased to 56.5 from 52.4 in March. The new hiring index for March increased to 50.0 from 49.9 in March as job gains for non-farm rural employers remained relatively low. April’s home and retail sales index fell to 45.8 from 54.8 in March, while the regional retail sales index fell to 39.1 from 43.2 in March.